Jan 05 2009
On Gaza and Israel
I am not amazed, nor even surprised, that Israel had launched a raid into Gaza. Nor am I stunned that such a raid has turned into a week (an more) of bombings and death (all of which are Palestinian). What I am curious about is the timing and objectives of Israel.
In an Egyptian-brokered cease fire established in June of 2008, HAMAS and Israel agreed to cease hostilities for a six month period to allow aid into Gaza. That agreement lapsed in December, around the 16th, during which time, HAMAS has fired what are essentially symbolic missiles into the south of “Israel” (since HAMAS was technically firing into what was, prior to the 1967 war and 1948 war, Palestinian territory now held by Israel in violation of armistices and UN resolutions, but I digress). So for nearly a month, Israel has been dealing with the headache (or slightly less dangerous than a headache) of HAMAS missiles launched into its territories but chose last week to do something about it. Why did they wait so long? Why did they not wait longer? A plausible answer might be the Israeli fears that Obama, with his already high rating among Arabs, might be a little less lenient than the Bush administration on Israeli aggression and military actions. In fact, many Israeli opinion editors (and, I think, politicians in the Likud party) see Obama’s inexperience not as a “fresh start” but more along the lines of having to reinvent the wheel to bring him into the pro-Zionist fold.
Another puzzler for me was the objective of Israel’s offensive into Gaza. According to official statements, it was to “kill the leadership of HAMAS” and render it ineffective, but Israel has already been doing just that; assassinating HAMAS leaders, such as the killing of quadriplegic HAMAS leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin in 2004 by firing a laser-guided missile at his car. Since around 2000, Israeli commandos have hunted down and assassinated Hamas leaders, but Hamas - which is a very ideologically-driven organization - seems to have become only stronger, particularly as Iranian money supports many of their actions and efforts. Additionally, by attacking with F-16s, M-1 Abrams tanks, artillery and now ground troops, the Israelis have upped the resistance of the Palestinians to Israeli objectives, as happened in the Intifada of the 1980’s and in Lebanon in 2006. To the Palestinians, who lack such armament despite the “rockets” they have (which are woefully ineffective and inaccurate), it is yet another example of Israel’s overbearing demeanor; Gaza is a mere 124 square miles yet thousands of Israeli armed troops, hundreds of armored vehicles and airships, and literally thousands of tons of ordinance have been dropped on a people who lack basic infrastructure such as running water, electricity or sewers. The result - I predict - will be a cease fire, several dead HAMAS leaders, dozens of dead Israeli soldiers, and hundreds (if not thousands) of dead Palestinians who are too poor to evacuate (and even if they could, where could they go? The border with Egypt is tightly controlled and the border with Israel has troops on it - shall they swim to Crete?). After the cease fire, HAMAS will return, fairly quickly I believe, and become even MORE anti-Israel than before only this time fuelled by increased Gazan hatred and frustration. Rocket attacks will begin again and suicide bombers targeting civilians will increase within a year.
Some might argue that this is actually HAMAS’ fault, and I would be disinclined to disagree with them; this is most definitely HAMAS’ fault. But it is also Israel’s fault; their superior position militarily and their belligerent politics toward the Palestinians have made them choose hostility and land over peace and security. To Israeli hawks, the only good Palestinian is a dead Palestinian. Likewise, HAMAS has actively fought against normalization of relationships, productive talks between the Palestinian authority (let alone Israel) and itself, and become increasingly belligerent. To HAMAS, and organizations like it such as hezb Allah (Hezbullah), a dead Palestinian is a useful Palestinian - as a recruiting and propaganda tool.
So what should Israel do? Well, in the short term, cease fire and withdraw from Gaza; it’s a no-win situation anyway, HAMAS will live on and will claim victory no matter what, so what use is national pride? Immediately after the withdrawal, Israel should begin dismantling the barricade walls surrounding Palestinian cities and villages and remove settlements in the Jordan valley and the “occupied terrirories” (as Israelis call them) of Palestine. By treating the West Bank portion of Palestine as a separate entity worthy of respect, the more amenable Palestinian Authority will accrue prestige and validity, which may serve it well in future elections against HAMAS - bloodshed and loss of land vs. peace and increased autonomy. Additionally, allowing only medical and food aid into Gaza (to avoid a humanitarian crisis) while actively investing in the infrastructure and businesses of the West Bank will further reward the “good” Palestinian government and punish the “bad” Palestinian government. Finally, Israel needs to give up the illusion that it will ever have East Jerusalem; Muslims all over the world are adamant about that and Israeli resistance not only fuels terrorists like HAMAS and hezb Allah, but also put the back of the PA up, since East Jerusalem and an autonomous Palestinian state’s capital are stated goals of the Palestinian Authority. Since Mahmoud Abbas has already stated that the PA recognizes Israel’s right to exist and the PA holds no love for HAMAS “thugs” (as they call them), there is little risk that such generosity will signal to West Bank Palestinians that Israel is weak or soft. Eventually, HAMAS will become discredited IF and only if Israel works to make the PA more legitimate by actually abiding by treaties and agreements instead of unilaterally revoking them or failing to live up to their end of the bargain. Only a peaceful course of “soft power” will destroy HAMAS; arms and violence will only increase resistance.
I would not be surprised to see the West Bank and Gaza become two distinct and separate states, similar to Bangladesh and Pakistan, in the following years if Israel really is serious about peace and security. It may take some serious negotiating, and some severe concessions on the part of both parties, but it is do-able if Israel wants it to be.
—————–Resources————-
Justin Eliott “Obama’s Israel Shuffle ” in Mother Jones 1 Feb 2008
Ed Lasky “Barack Obama’s Middle East Expert ” on American Thinker 23 Jan 2008
Al Ahram (Egypt) “Obituary: Sheikh Ahmed Yassin: 1938-2004 ” 31 Mar2004
Aron Heller “Israel Eyes 2002 Saudi Proposal for Peace ” in The San Diego Union-Tribune 20 Oct 2008
“Text of the Saudi Peace Proposal, 2002 ” from al Bab
Stumble It!
Thanks for the comment Bobo; I have to disagree that “things were actually more peaceful” during the Israeli occupation of Gaza and the West Bank - the Intifada of 1987 alone caused far more havoc than subsequent years. Besides, if Israel occupied the West Bank and Gaza, not only would it be political suicide that even the US could not help dig Israel out of, but the external rocket attacks would very quickly become internal IED attacks. Then the Israelis would be left with a choice; confine Palsetinians into segregated camps - let’s call them “ghettos” - or kill them all (the irony of the situation is maddening in the extreme; Israelis using the Holocaust as an excuse to commit genocide).
Hi Tom,
Thanks for the questions and comments. No, it’s not just Americans saying that Hamas has ties to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, it’s Ahmedinijad when he refers to Iran’s “brothers” fighting Israel - money is usually funneled in to Hamas and Hezb Allah through various intermediaries. That is part of the reason that Hamas isn’t too well liked by most Arab governments and most Arabs outside of Palestine. Hamas is hated by its former bosses, the Muslim Brotherhood, it is hated by Fatah and the Palestinian Authority, and it is hated even by al Qaeda (as evidenced by the relative silence from Ayman al Zawahiri on this subject, where normally they’d cheer the deaths of Israelis and encourage the fight as happened in Lebanon in 2006). Hamas is extremely ideologically-driven and because they have no physical proximity to Iran, but do to Israel, Iran is more than willing to help prop Hamas up because it annoys the United States and Israel. I’d imagine that once Obama gets into office and Iran has its elections, there will be a more quiet, centrist face put forward by the Ayatollah and the clergy of Iran.
What you say about Iran is true; they have not been the aggressor since the days of the Ottoman Empire. That being said, they learned a thing or two from the CIA; interference by proxy costs the nation almost nothing (except money) and inconveniences the enemy - they were front-row spectators of Afghanistan as well as pawns against the Soviet Union and Russia at the hands of the U.S. and Britain, respectively, afterall.
In the end, the more Hamas goads Israel into this kind of overwhelming belligerence, and as long as the Bush administration (and Democrats, let us not forget) are willing to turn a blind eye, then Iran wins; dead Sunni Palestinians, Hamas takes the fall and becomes an even more visible “bad guy” in the region, Israel gets blamed for thousands of innocent Palestinian deaths, and the U.S. looks like it couldn’t give a rat’s ass less about Arab or Muslim lives - it’s a win-win-win-win for Iran and the Iranian message.
Funny thing, I was talking to a former attache to the U.S. mission in Bahrain (who was recruiting me to join the State department a year back) and he said that when he went over to the Gulf in the 1980’s, most Arab Muslims feared the Iranians and their Shi’a dogma becoming so powerful and recently, there has been admiration on the part of the Arabs for the way Iran “stands up” to the United States and Geroge W Bush (who the Arabs call “bosh” meaning “nothing”)
Hi Kirk,
Actually, the least bad option would be to withdraw from Gaza, start treating the Palestinians in the West Bank better by dismantling the settlements they’ve been building there, affording the PA authority, and investing in the Palestinians’ future in the West Bank. Not only will that undermine Hamas, it will set the PA up as an interested party in peace and security. Currently, the cycle of terror works this way; Hamas terrorists operate hospitals, schools, and food services for the Palestinians (who are, naturally, grateful considering Israel destroys the infrastructure [sewers, water, electricity, etc.] every year or so) AND they spread their message of “our way is the only way.” Life improves for Palestinians who then start to consider “maybe Hamas ain’t the best for me.” Hamas then fires rockets into Israel to provoke an Israeli military response, which the Israelis oblige them with. Hamas knows they have no way of beating Israel conventionally, so they do it to make Israel kill innocent civilians (which they do, no matter how they spin it - 30 children at a UN-run school, for instance). Then Hamas points to the bloody bodies of children killed at school, the legless old women mangled by US-made Israeli bombs, and the fatherless families left bereft by Israeli tanks and say “See? every time we help you, Israel destroys what we built for you [schools, hospitals, etc] and now they’ve made martyrs out of your sons, daughters, and cousins.” Hamas then gets a fresh infusion of willing idealogues - what else would you do if all you had to go back to was muddy streets, stone age infrastructure and the possibility that you could die sitting in your living room being a non-combatant? Then Hamas rebuilds hospitals, schools, etc. and the cycle starts all over again.
I know America and American politicians LOVE to draw comparisons (what if Tiajuana were firing rockets into San Diego, or Cuba firing rockets into Florida, or Vancouver firing rockets into Washington, etc.) but the truth is, it’s not like that at all - Americans would have to be building houses, enclaves, and outposts in Tiajuana/Cuba/Vancouver and then having the US military support them against angry Mexicans/Cubans/Canadians IN ADDITION to destroying Mexico’s/Cuba’s/Canada’s infrastructure, killing innocent civilians, and all the while citing Biblical verse as justification.
No matter how may dead “heads of Hamas” they kill, there will always be a lieutenant or other leader who seizes the opportunity of the boss’ death to make himself overlord of Hamas (even if for just a while).
The lesson here is that violence, especially in the Middle East, solves nothing and creates more problems than it solves; ask Marine and Army commanders who, until 2007, were fighting Sunnis, Shi’as, and Kurds - they will unequivocally tell you that political agreements and Tribal loyalty will work far, far better than all of America’s M16s, M1 Abrams, or JSF fighters.
Hi Tom,
Thanks for your post and for the link to your longer post; it was an interesting read. I do have to disagree with you on certain points; Hamas did fire rockets prior to the Israeli invasion, according to al-Jazeera - though they do make the point (and one that should be repeated loudly here in the US) that the rockets were home-made and woefully inaccurate. Israel is absolutely obfuscating its neoconservatively evil motivations with this invasion; why else would they consistently target relief convoys operating under the clearly-marked and coordinated banners of UNRWA and Red Cross/Red Crescent? It is part of the escalation of killing Muslims to gain more land, most Arabs believe and there seems to be no evidence to disprove their ideas.
Thanks again for the post and I am always glad to hear others’ opinions and insight.
I feel sad that we have to divide and multiply as a World family than Unite and become one..as in Spirit we really are..it is on one dimension a sordid state of affairs to be so far from the Truth. We can only pray that one day they will all wake up to realize that they are not so different from each other. I loved your post.
Yajiaren: I agree with you whole heartedly; perhaps moreso in this case. Jews and Arabs, particularly Palestinian Arabs, are two people who are linguistically, genetically, historically, and culturally intertwined.
“Jews and Arabs are all really children of Abraham,” says Harry Ostrer, M.D., Director of the Human Genetics Program at New York University School of Medicine
“It is a happy coincidence that Arabs and Jews are ‘cousins in race’ and should take the first steps toward attaining their national ideals together” Emir Faisal, Saudi Arabia (1919).
I join you in your hope that there will yet be peace there, but it is a hope overwhelmed by sadness. Perhaps the most poignant manifestation of that hope is al Jazeera’s front page today:
http://english.aljazeera.net/
Tom, you are always welcome and are a wonderful poster; thank you for your compliment. I agree, Israel does not have a leg to stand on, nor did it have a leg to stand on in 2006 as you rightly pointed out on your post. THe Arabs have a saying that I think you may like, Tom: Insha Allah - it means “God willing.” With everything said about the attack in Gaza, about the reparations of Palestinians and the reuniting of them with their land, with the oppression they suffer under, with the ignorance and fear they are met with when facing Western (pro-Zionist) media, they preface all their hopes with “Insha Allah;” their hope is mingled with a fatalism that has become ingrained in their daily lives. They hope for Democracy, but fear it will never come. They hope for peace, but fear Israel will actively seek to destroy it. They hope for security, but fear that what they will receive instead is brutal dictatorships from their governments.
I did want to add something that I forgot to about your post - you are spot on about Hamas not being RELIGIOUSLY ideological, but they are ideologically driven in the same vein as the Ba’athist party in Iraq and Syria. Their nationalism is the nationalism of the IRA, ETA, and PKK; that is, a sovereign national state taken by force, using terror tactics against a larger foe while providing basic necessities to their people (who are actually their clients). All Israel is doing is making the case for Hamas - if Israel was smart, they’d change tactics. But they’re not smart; they’re ideologically-driven as well and though others may scoff at the idea, I would dare say that Israel is well on its way to another Holocaust; this time with them as the aggressors and it will be one in which Muslims are the victoms.